Study: The United States will miss the production of electric car batteries by 90%

The production of EV battery cells will not meet the demand in the future.

Electric cars are the future, but a report sponsored by ABB Robotics on electric car batteries and authored by Ultima Media ‘s automotive intelligence unit fears that EV battery cell supplies will not meet future demands and could harm future market share for electric vehicles based on A study was conducted in this regard.

The study calls for real caution despite the fact that there are plans to set up 80 new EV battery cell plants around the world. But it seems that there is a lack of production that will face the world, and this was confirmed by the study, which indicated that the production of future electric car battery cells will not meet the global demand for these batteries.

The future of electric cars

The report also states that 2036 is the year in which electric passenger cars are expected to outpace their gasoline and gas ICE counterparts. This also relates to a time when many countries and automakers are planning to stop sales of new ICE cars and engage in electric cars only.

Something the study found interesting can be found in the graphs and charts below. According to the study, East Asia accounted for 77 percent of global EV battery cell production in 2020. North America’s battery cell production is only 10 percent and Europe is 13 percent.

Even more interesting, the study indicates that North America will still produce just 10 percent of EV battery supply by 2030, while Europe will release as much as 33 percent. East Asia will continue to dominate battery cell production in 2030.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by this because governments in Europe and East Asia are pushing more aggressively to adopt electric cars. Electric vehicles make up a larger share of the market in those regions, and the charging infrastructure there is better than that in North America. The Biden administration has big aspirations for electric cars, let’s hope they follow along with them.

The study believes that the demand for batteries will reach 2,180 GWh in 2030 while the production capacity of batteries will grow to more than 2,857 GWh. These numbers put battery production above demand, but the study shows that actual battery cell factories production is about 70 percent of their maximum stated capacity.

Here is the full excerpt from the study with further explanation:

While we expect global electric vehicle sales to grow at a remarkable compound annual growth rate of 21% over the next decade, the increase in battery production and capacity will be even higher. This is because the battery capacity in kilowatt-hours required for each vehicle is likely to rise as well.

We estimate that average car battery capacity will rise by 3% annually over the next decade as battery prices fall, allowing OEMs to install larger capacity batteries to improve driving range. Until now ,

All-electric variants also tended to be from the smaller to midsize models in the OEM lineup, which were easier to electrify to meet emissions targets. But OEMs will increasingly be forced to electrify most if not all of their fleets. The increase in the category of electronic SUVs globally and electric pickup trucks in North America,

For example, it is likely to increase the sizes of the batteries and thus the demand for the battery. The demand for other energy storage, consumer and home products will increase the need for gigawatt-hour capacity.

Consequently, battery production will need to increase faster than electric vehicle sales volumes suggest. Moreover, the battery capacity must greatly exceed the demand because the theoretical maximum capacity of battery factories is rarely achieved as a result of technical and logistical problems. For example, there may be a slowdown due to a lack of cobalt, a cathode, or quality control issues, which may mean that not all cells produced will be viable. The rule of thumb is that the actual production output is about 70% of the stated maximum capacity.

We expect that while battery demand will rise from 330 GWh in 2020 to 2,180 GWh in 2030, battery production capacity will rise in the same period from 450 GWh to more than 2,857 GWh.

Electric vehicle battery supply chain analysis

This report is not the first to share concerns about future battery cell supply, and many manufacturers may agree that battery cell supply will be an issue in the future when demand rises. Automakers are currently collaborating with other automakers to produce electric cars, and some sign multibillion-dollar contracts with battery cell suppliers. Soon, all automakers will have battery cell factories like Tesla currently does.