Models: Tesla siblings, Wuling Mini EV shine in hot market, BYD fiercely competitive
The Tesla Model 3 was the world’s most popular plug-in electric vehicle with worldwide unit sales of roughly 501,000 in 2021. That year, deliveries of Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y have more than doubled year-over-year, and these two models accounted for 97 percent of Tesla’s sales volume in 2021.
Registrations rose an astonishing 173% last month, to around 531,000 units, the second best month ever, after just 571,000 units last December, as BEVs jumped 145%, to around 351,000 units, so we may be seeing the plug-in market hit (well) more than 5 million units this year.
These impressive sales results this year, with more than 1.1 million units already recorded this year, pulled the share of 2021 PEV to 5.8% (3.8% BEV), already well above 4% last year, all thanks to a record score in March 8.2% (5.4% BEV), and we expect growth to continue over the year, to a large single digit figure, as disruption (eg, double digit market shares) appears to be occurring at a global level in recent 2022 months this year…
The future will depend a lot on the evolution of the pandemic and on the economic recovery, but whatever happens, expect plug-ins to weather the storm better than the market as a whole, increasing their share of electric vehicles on the way.
All of the top five March models repeated their February rankings, with platform holders all winning their best, with the Nesla 3 in particular setting a new all-time record for a single EV, with nearly 76,000 units. Will we see it beat the 100,000-unit mark this year?
The top three are already in their own sales league, and these three models alone account for nearly 30% of deliveries in March.
Slightly below those top five positions, we see a few surprises, with the Hyundai Kona EV back in shape, ranked sixth, with 7,623 units, while the Nissan Leaf veteran climbed to seventh place, thanks to 7,511 units and newcomer Volkswagen ID 4. Officially started. Her career is ranked eighth, with 6,568 units, and she expects to hit five figures soon.
On the PHEV side, the best-selling model was the Volvo XC60 PHEV (6,081 units), with the Swedish company taking its second 1-2 victory in a row, with the Volvo XC40 PHEV (5,812) being the second category. Both Volvos set records last month, highlighting the Swedish manufacturer’s good moment.
According to the year-to-date sales chart, the Tesla Model 3 is back in first place, the 30,000-unit advance should be, and in second place is the Wuling Model 2 Mini EV in second place which is enough to keep China’s small electric EV at bay over the next two months.
Tesla’s Model Y took the bronze, pulling away from the No. 4 BYD Han EV, as the crossover disguised as a mid-size SUV now prepares for its first assault on second place next June.
The first change of position occurred off the podium at #6, where the Nissan Leaf jumped four places (discounts really help move the metal…), even allowing the veteran model to improve its position for 2020 (#7) and maintain its best seller position in a compact class (Where are you ID.3 model?…).
The BEV side had other models on the rise, such as the Hyundai Kona EV whose sales jumped 9 places, to No. 8, with the Korean crossover now being the new king in subcompact vehicles (Part B), while the Audi e-Tron Let’s make it to the top 10, regaining best-selling status in the full-size category.Hyundai Kona EV ranks fourth in the world
In the second half of this list, it is worth noting the Mercedes-Benz 330e that climbed to number 18, with sales of 11,798 units, which is less than a tenth of the Model 3 deliveries…
After a long absence, we should salute the return of the Chevrolet Bolt, in 20th place, where last month’s hottest GM EV set a record 6,123 units.
Outside the top 20 bestseller list are two models that may soon make the top 20 list, as the 21 Peugeot 208 EV Citro continues to knock on the door and see its sales soar. Sales of the French hatchback are now up to 700, behind the mentioned Chevy Bolt. above. Which makes it eligible to enter the list soon and perhaps before the end of the year.
Manufacturers: Tesla in the lead
Not only did Tesla ‘s March sales result (108,398 units) mark a new all-time high, but it also marked the first time we’d see a six-digit result on the monthly table, reinforcing expectations that Tesla will finish the year with more than 800,000 units, or 0.8 million cars.
Looking at the electric car maker’s numbers in more detail, one can say that both sides of the Tesla fence are correct:
- Pro-Tesla analysts are right to say that the Tesla demand curve is a myth, with deliveries jumping 109% year over year, and experts expecting it to continue at similar rates through most of the year, and possibly also into 2022.
- But Anti-Tesla analysts are also right to say that competition is stealing a share of Tesla, because while in absolute terms, the EV maker will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, that growth will come at the expense of regular ICE sales models, and this takes us to the realization that the share of Tesla’s inside the plug-in market is now declining, as new models of competing cars are launched seemingly every day and the market for other electric vehicles is growing faster than Tesla. In the first quarter of 2020, Tesla held 19% of the stock versus the current 16%, and it should lose a few more points through the end of the year. (Same goes for electric car enthusiasts, Tesla captured 29% of the electric car market in the first quarter of 2020, and now has 25%.)
Who wins the stake on an annual basis?
There are a few, besides the obvious case of SGMW, which has come out of nowhere with its current 9% sales share, and the most anticipated to me are the German manufacturer Mercedes, which now owns 5% of a 3% stake from the past 12 months, thanks to A long and powerful lineup of PHEVs and an ever-growing BEV range (at this pace, they’ll run out of the alphabet for their EQ range in about two years…), late Mercedes also began threatening the arc of its BMW-rival, as the triple star maker climbed another point in the March, ranking sixth.
Great Wall’s expanding ORA lineup also helps the Chinese company gain an increased share, from 1% in March 2020, to 3% currently, while the small NIO has managed to survive in the shark tank and gain a larger scale, as it now has 2 % in the global plug-in market, and now that survival is assured, I think it’s time for the Chinese EV company to start venturing into overseas markets.
Finally, Ford also increased its global market share, by 1%, thanks to the resurgence of its Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV and the addition of the Mustang Mach-E.
But let’s go back to last month’s performances, Volkswagen is recovering from a poor start to the year and climbed to fourth, and the same story applies to Renault and Hyundai, with the French maker reaching number 12, while the Korean slug jumped to number 16.
Away from the spotlight, Toyota is slowly climbing the table, now at number 14, thanks to the (slow) production ramp up of its RAV4 bestseller PHEV-class cars, with the Japanese company setting a record 10,226 units last month. Toyota is not ruling out the race yet…
Outside of the world’s top 20 best-selling car companies, it’s worth noting Porsche, thanks to a record 6077 delivery in March, standing at the new 21, less than 600 units off the top 20 , an outstanding performance for such a niche brand. (and expensive).
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